Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038
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Published on: December 21, 2019
Kyeongmin Kwak1, Sung-Il Cho2,3, Domyung Paek3,4
1Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan 15355, Korea.
Abstract:
Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a cancer that is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Although asbestos is no longer used in South Korea, the incidence of MM continues to increase due to its long latent period. We aimed to update the previous prediction of MM incidence until 2038. We predicted the incidence of MM over the next 20 years (2019-2038) in South Korea using Møller's age-period-cohort (APC) model and a Poisson regression model based on asbestos consumption. The APC model predicted that the crude incidence rate would increase sharply in men and slowly in women. Despite the sex discrepancy in the rate of increase, the incidence rate for both sexes is expected to continue increasing until 2038. In the Poisson model, the crude incidence rate was predicted to increase continuously until 2038, and far more cases of MM were predicted to occur compared with the results of the APC model. When compared with actual incidence data, the APC model was deemed more suitable than the Poisson model. The APC model predicted a continuous increase over the next 20 years with no peak, suggesting that the incidence of MM will continue to rise far into the future.
Insights
Malignant mesothelioma (MM) incidence in South Korea is predicted to rise until 2038. The age-period-cohort model suggests a continuous increase for both sexes, indicating a prolonged future rise in asbestos-related cancer cases.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Oncology
Background:
- Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is primarily linked to asbestos exposure.
- Despite cessation of asbestos use in South Korea, MM incidence is rising due to long latency periods.
- Accurate forecasting of MM incidence is crucial for public health planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To update predictions of malignant mesothelioma incidence in South Korea up to 2038.
- To compare the predictive accuracy of two distinct epidemiological models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Møller's age-period-cohort (APC) model for incidence prediction.
- Employed a Poisson regression model incorporating asbestos consumption data.
- Validated model predictions against actual incidence data.
Main Results:
- The APC model forecasts a sharp increase in MM incidence for men and a slower rise for women.
- Both sexes are projected to experience increasing MM incidence rates until 2038.
- The APC model demonstrated higher suitability compared to the Poisson model when assessed against real-world data.
Conclusions:
- The APC model predicts a sustained increase in malignant mesothelioma incidence in South Korea, without an apparent peak.
- These findings underscore the long-term public health implications of past asbestos exposure.
- Continued monitoring and preventive strategies are essential to manage the future burden of MM.
