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Post-Operative All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Abdominal Emergency Surgery: Role of Charlson
Fabio Fabbian1,2, Alfredo De Giorgi2, Silvia Ferro3,4
1Department of Medical Sciences, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy.
Insights
The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) can predict mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery (EAS). A CCI score of 4 or higher significantly increases the risk of death, aiding in preoperative risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Geriatric Surgery
- Surgical Outcomes Research
- Mortality Prediction Models
Background:
- The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is debated for predicting mortality in surgical patients.
- Elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery (EAS) require accurate risk stratification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) for predicting all-cause mortality in elderly patients (≥65 years) undergoing EAS.
- To assess the independent predictive value of CCI in this patient cohort.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective single-center study of 197 elderly patients undergoing EAS from 2017-2019.
- CCI calculated using ICD-9-CM codes; all-cause death was the primary outcome during follow-up.
- Cox regression analysis adjusted for age and sex.
Main Results:
- Overall mortality was 23.8%. Open surgery had higher mortality (74%) than laparoscopic (26%).
- Mean CCI was 4.98. Patients with CCI ≥ 4 had lower survival.
- CCI (HR 1.132) and open surgery (HR 10.298) independently predicted all-cause death.
Conclusions:
- CCI is a valuable tool for preoperative risk stratification in elderly patients undergoing EAS.
- A CCI score of 4 or higher is associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of age.
Abstract:
(1) Background: The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score has been shown to predict 10-year all-cause mortality, but its validity is a matter of debate in surgical patients. We wanted to evaluate CCI on predicting all-cause mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery (EAS); (2) Methods: This retrospective single center study included all patients aged 65 years or older consecutively admitted from January 2017 to December 2019, who underwent EAS and were discharged alive. CCI was calculated by using of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Our outcome was all-cause death recorded during the 20.8 ± 8.8 month follow-up; (3) Results: We evaluated 197 patients aged 78.4 ± 7.2 years of whom 47 (23.8%) died. Mortality was higher in patients who underwent open abdominal surgery than in those treated with laparoscopic procedure (74% vs. 26%, p < 0.001), and in those who needed colon, small bowel, and gastric surgery. Mean CCI was 4.98 ± 2.2, and in subjects with CCI ≥ 4 survival was lower. Cox regression analysis showed that CCI (HR 1.132, 95% CI 1.009-1.270, p = 0.035), and open surgery (HR 10.298, 95%CI 1.409-75.285, p = 0.022) were associated with all-cause death independently from age and sex; (4) Conclusions: Calculation of CCI, could help surgeons in the preoperative stratification of risk of death after discharge in subjects aged ≥65 years who need EAS. CCI ≥ 4, increases the risk of all-causes mortality independently from age.
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