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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Oct 30, 2025

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Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.

Yingying X G Wang^1,2, Kevin D Matson¹, Luca Santini^3,4,5

¹Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Global Change Biology

|July 2, 2021

Summary

Wildlife assemblages are key to emerging infectious diseases. This study reveals high-risk areas globally and forecasts how climate change and habitat loss will alter disease risk by changing species composition, not just richness.

Keywords:

assemblage composition climate change emerging infectious diseases habitat loss infectious disease hotspots species distributions

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Published on: February 10, 2023

Area of Science:

Ecology
Epidemiology
Conservation Biology

Background:

Emerging infectious diseases often originate from wildlife, necessitating quantitative assessments of wildlife assemblages and spatial patterns to identify high-risk areas.
Previous research focused on individual species distributions, but disease transmission dynamics depend on assemblage composition, which can change without species extinction.
Understanding disease-diversity relationships is crucial, especially as assemblage composition and disease risk can shift due to factors beyond species loss.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantitatively assess global patterns of disease risk associated with wildlife assemblages.
To estimate the impact of climate change and habitat loss on disease risk from 2015 to 2035.
To explore the drivers of changes in disease risk and their relationship with biodiversity.

Main Methods:

Predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species globally.
Calculated the community-level basic reproductive ratio (R0) to assess disease risk (invasion potential, persistence, maximum prevalence).
Forecasted changes in disease risk under climate change and habitat loss scenarios, analyzing shifts in assemblage composition.

Main Results:

Identified high-risk areas for density-dependent diseases in both tropical and northern temperate latitudes.
Observed significant changes in wildlife assemblage composition between 2015 and 2035, despite no net loss in species richness in many areas.
Found a general decrease in density-dependent disease risk but an increase in frequency-dependent disease risk globally over the forecasted period.

Conclusions:

Biodiversity and its changes are significant drivers of disease risk.
Shifts in wildlife assemblage composition, influenced by climate change and habitat loss, alter disease risk dynamics.
Identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots through understanding these biodiversity-disease relationships is vital for public health resource allocation.