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Updated: Oct 30, 2025
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
India's pragmatic vaccination strategy against COVID-19: a mathematical modelling-based analysis
Sandip Mandal1, Nimalan Arinaminpathy2, Balram Bhargava3
1Division of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases (Clinical Studies, Projection & Policy Unit), Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India.
Objectives:
To investigate the impact of targeted vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, as well as on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2, in India.
Design:
Mathematical modelling.
Settings:
Indian epidemic of COVID-19 and vulnerable population.
Data Sources:
Country-specific and age-segregated pattern of social contact, case fatality rate and demographic data obtained from peer-reviewed literature and public domain.
Model:
An age-structured dynamical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in India incorporating uncertainty in natural history parameters was constructed.
Interventions:
Comparison of different vaccine strategies by targeting priority groups such as keyworkers including healthcare professionals, individuals with comorbidities (24-60 years old) and all above 60.
Main Outcome Measures:
Incidence reduction and averted deaths in different scenarios, assuming that the current restrictions are fully lifted as vaccination is implemented.
Results:
The priority groups together account for about 18% of India's population. An infection-preventing vaccine with 60% efficacy covering all these groups would reduce peak symptomatic incidence by 20.6% (95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 16.7-25.4) and cumulative mortality by 29.7% (95% CrI 25.8-33.8). A similar vaccine with ability to prevent symptoms (but not infection) will reduce peak incidence of symptomatic cases by 10.4% (95% CrI 8.4-13.0) and cumulative mortality by 32.9% (95% CrI 28.6-37.3). In the event of insufficient vaccine supply to cover all priority groups, model projections suggest that after keyworkers, vaccine strategy should prioritise all who are >60 and subsequently individuals with comorbidities. In settings with weakest transmission, such as sparsely populated rural areas, those with comorbidities should be prioritised after keyworkers.
Conclusions:
An appropriately targeted vaccination strategy would witness substantial mitigation of impact of COVID-19 in a country like India with wide heterogeneity. 'Smart vaccination', based on public health considerations, rather than mass vaccination, appears prudent.
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