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Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting
Edward M Hill1, Benjamin D Atkins1, Matt J Keeling1
1The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7 AL, United Kingdom; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research(1), United Kingdom.
University COVID-19 transmission modeling shows high adherence to testing, tracing, and isolation measures can significantly reduce infections. Without these interventions, outbreaks are likely, with on-campus students facing higher risks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Universities host large student populations, increasing COVID-19 transmission risk.
- Previous models suggested university outbreaks were probable.
- Effective interventions are crucial for controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread in academic settings.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in a university setting.
- To evaluate the impact of interventions like isolation, testing, and contact tracing.
- To compare infection rates between on-campus and off-campus students.
Main Methods:
- Developed a network-based model of student interactions (housing, social, study).
- Simulated a susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered epidemic process for one academic term.
- Assessed the effects of varying adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions and mass testing.
Main Results:
- High adherence to test, trace, and isolation measures reduced infections to 22% (7%-41%), versus 69% (56%-76%) with zero adherence.
- On-campus students had higher infection proportions than off-campus students, regardless of isolation adherence.
- Regular mass testing, combined with high adherence, substantially lowered infection rates.
Conclusions:
- SARS-CoV-2 transmits readily in universities with low intervention adherence or delayed test results.
- Isolation guidance and effective contact tracing are key to curbing transmission.
- Interventions can reduce the duration of isolation for adhering students.
