Addressing disturbance risk to mountain forest ecosystem services.

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Environmental Science
• Forest Management and Conservation
• Risk Assessment and Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Ecosystem service (ES) mapping is crucial for ecosystem management but often lacks critical uncertainty and risk information.
• Mountain forests face increasing natural disturbances (windthrow, bark beetles, fires), impacting their capacity to provide essential services.
• These disturbances pose challenges for forest management by affecting services like hazard protection, wood production, and carbon sequestration.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a risk-based approach for mapping ecosystem services in mountain forests.
• To integrate forest susceptibility to natural disturbances into probabilistic models for ES mapping.
• To compare ES risk patterns between a managed area (Davos) and a strictly protected area (Swiss National Park).

Main Methods:

• Probabilistic Bayesian Network models were developed for key ES: avalanche protection, carbon sequestration, recreation, habitats, and wood production.
• Models integrated data from remote sensing, social media, in-situ measurements, process-based models, and expert knowledge.
• Clustering was used to identify bundles of risk to ES, and spatial patterns were analyzed under different disturbance scenarios.

Main Results:

• The risk-based approach successfully mapped ES levels and uncertainties in Swiss Alpine study areas.
• Spatially heterogeneous risk patterns reflected topography, forest characteristics, and ES demand.
• Davos showed significant risks to avalanche protection, carbon sequestration, wood production, and recreation; the Swiss National Park exhibited lower overall ES risk and improved habitat quality under disturbance.

Conclusions:

• A risk-based ES mapping approach is effective for identifying vulnerable forest stands and stable ES provision.
• Findings highlight the need to consider disturbance susceptibility and ES demand in forest management planning.
• The study provides valuable insights for prioritizing management actions in mountain forest ecosystems facing climate change and increasing disturbances.