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Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co-infection model with optimal control

Andrew Omame1, Ndolane Sene2, Ikenna Nometa3

  • 1Department of Mathematics Federal University of Technology Owerri Owerri Nigeria.

Optimal Control Applications & Methods
|July 6, 2021
PubMed

Insights

This study models COVID-19 reinfection, finding that diabetes mellitus increases complications. Preventing infection in those with diabetes is the most cost-effective control strategy.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • COVID-19 poses significant health risks, with comorbidities like diabetes mellitus potentially exacerbating complications.
  • Understanding disease dynamics, including reinfection and the impact of underlying health conditions, is crucial for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a mathematical model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating reinfection.
  • To assess the impact of diabetes mellitus comorbidity on COVID-19 complications and disease peaks.
  • To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various COVID-19 control strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Development and analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 with reinfection.
  • Simulation of the model using data from Lagos, Nigeria.
  • Application of optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Main Results:

  • The model exhibits backward bifurcation due to increased susceptibility in comorbid individuals and reinfection rates.
  • Decreasing reinfection rates among recovered individuals reduces infection peaks.
  • Preventing COVID-19 infection in individuals with diabetes mellitus is identified as the most cost-effective strategy.

Conclusions:

  • Diabetes mellitus significantly impacts COVID-19 dynamics and complications.
  • Reinfection rates play a critical role in disease peaks.
  • Targeted prevention strategies for high-risk groups, such as those with diabetes, are essential for efficient COVID-19 control.

Keywords:
COVID‐19comorbiditydata‐fittingoptimal controlreinfection

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