Fractional Model and Numerical Algorithms for Predicting COVID-19 with Isolation and Quarantine Strategies

In December 2019, a new outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention, the virus then spread rapidly in most countries of the world, the objective of this paper is to investigate the mathematical modelling and dynamics of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) with Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative in the presence of quarantine and isolation strategies. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions for the fractional model is proved using fixed point iterations, the fractional model are shown to have disease-free and an endemic equilibrium point.We construct a fractional version of the four-steps Adams-Bashforth method as well as the error estimate of this method. We have used this method to determine the numerical scheme of this model and Matlab program to illustrate the evolution of the virus in some countries (Morocco, Qatar, Brazil and Mexico) as well as to support theoretical results. The Least squares fitting is a way to find the best fit curve or line for a set of points, so we apply this method in this paper to construct an algorithm to estimate the parameters of fractional model as well as the fractional order, this model gives an estimate better than that of classical model.