Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Science
• Forestry

Background:

• Mediterranean forests provide vital ecosystem services, including provisioning, regulating, and cultural benefits.
• Societies across the Mediterranean basin rely heavily on these valuable forest resources.
• Projected climate change poses a significant threat to the future provision of these services.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify projected changes in ecosystem services provided by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios.
• To assess the impact of different temperature thresholds (below or above 2°C) on these changes.
• To synthesize findings from 78 scientific studies published over the last 30 years.

Main Methods:

• Systematic literature review of 78 studies on Mediterranean forest ecosystem services.
• Classification of climate change scenarios based on the Paris Agreement's 2°C threshold.
• Analysis of projected changes in regulating, material, and cultural services, as well as forest hazards.

Main Results:

• Climate change is projected to reduce regulating services (e.g., carbon storage, water quality) and increase forest hazards like fires (median +62% by 2100).
• Scenarios exceeding the 2°C threshold showed more severe negative impacts on regulating services.
• Material services (e.g., wood products) showed varied trends dependent on interactions with other drivers and species-specific productivity responses.
• Significant reductions in habitat suitability are projected for drought-sensitive species (e.g., Fagus sylvatica -88%), while drought-tolerant species may see stable or increased habitat, though limited under extreme scenarios.

Conclusions:

• Climate change mitigation, aiming to stay below the 2°C threshold, is essential for preserving Mediterranean forest ecosystem services.
• Conservation strategies must consider species-specific vulnerabilities to drought and the influence of multiple drivers.
• Maintaining forest health and service provision requires adherence to global climate targets.