A 5-Year Survival Prediction Model for Chronic Heart Failure Patients Induced by Coronary Heart Disease with...

This study aimed to construct a 5-year survival prediction model of coronary heart disease (CHD) induced chronic heart failure (CHF), which is supported by the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) factor, and to verify the model.

Inpatients from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2017, in seven hospitals in Shandong Province were studied. The random number table was used to randomly divide the seven hospitals into two groups (training set and verification set). In the training set, the least absolute shrinkage selection operator regression was first used to screen the independent variables. Logistic regression was then applied to construct a survival prediction model. The following nomogram visualizes the prediction model results. Finally, C-indices, calibration curves, and decision curves were used to discriminate and calibrate the established model and evaluate its practicability in the clinic. Bootstrap resampling and the verification set were used for internal and external verification, respectively.

A total of 424 eligible patients were included in the model construction and verification. In this 5-year survival prediction model of patients with CHF induced by CHD, eight independent predictors were included. The series of C-indices for the training set, bootstrap resamples, and verification set was 0.885, 0.867, and 0.835, respectively, demonstrating the credibility of our model. Additionally, the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and clinical decision curve analysis of the training and verification sets showed that this 5-year survival prediction model was good in discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability.

This work highlights eight independent factors affecting 5-year mortality in patients with CHF induced by CHD after discharge and further helps reallocate medical resources rationally by precisely identifying high-risk groups. The constructed prediction model not only plays a credible role in prediction but also demonstrates TCM intervention as a protective factor for the 5-year death of patients with CHF induced by CHD, thereby advancing the use of TCM in CHF.