Characteristics of thermospheric infrasound predicted using ray tracing and weakly non-linear waveform analyses

Infrasonic signals refracted by thermal gradients in the rarefied upper atmosphere are modeled using a combination of ray tracing and weak shock theory to develop an understanding of thermospheric infrasound signals produced by energetic, transient sources. Canonical arrival structures in the form of u-wave signatures are identified for returns refracted at lower altitudes within the thermosphere, and possible multi-pathing produced by effective sound speed inflections are investigated to elucidate more complex arrival structures, which are found to be spatially localized. Variability in the source characteristics is investigated and it is found that whereas some waveform phase information is lost due to finite amplitude effects, arrival characteristics are strongly dependent on the peak overpressure near the source. Variability in the propagation path is considered using archived atmospheric specifications and implies that despite uncertainties related to the dynamic and sparsely sampled nature of the atmosphere, thermospheric signatures might be useful in estimating the yield for explosive sources. Last, thermospheric arrivals from a failed rocket launch, as well as those from several large chemical explosions, are analyzed and it is found that qualitative trends match those predicted, and analyses here provide additional insight into such signatures.