Geographical variation and factors associated with gastric cancer in Manitoba

We investigated the spatial disparities and factors associated with gastric cancer (GC) Incidence in Manitoba.

We combined information from Manitoba Cancer registry and Census data to obtain an age-sex adjusted relative risk (IRR) of GC incidence. We geocoded the IRR to the 96 regional health authority districts (RHADs) using the postal code conversion file (PCCF). Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal Poisson regression models were used for the analysis.

Adjusting for the effect of socio-economic score index (SESI), Indigenous, and immigrant population, 25 districts with high overall GC risk were identified. One unit increase in SESI was associated with reduced risk of cardia GC (CGC) by 14% (IRR = 0.859; 95% CI: 0.780-0.947) and the risk of non-cardia GC (NCGC) by approximately 10% (IRR = 0.898; 95% CI: 0.812-0.995); 1% increase in regional Indigenous population proportion reduced the risk of CGC by 1.4% (IRR = 0.986; 95% CI: 0.978-0.994). In the analysis stratified by sex, one unit increase in SESI reduced the risk of CGC among women by 26.2% (IRR = 0.738; 95% CI: 0.618-0.879), and a 1% increase in Indigenous population proportion reduced the risk of CGC among women by 1.9% (IRR = 0.981; 95% CI: 0.966-0.996).

Our results support a significant association between SESI and NCGC. We report regional variation of GC IRR and a varying temporal pattern across the RHADs. These results could be used to prioritize interventions for regions with high and progressive risk of GC.