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Where Do We Go From Here? A Framework for Using Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Models for Policy Making in Emerging

Roy S Zawadzki1, Cynthia L Gong2, Sang K Cho3

  • 1Department of Statistics, Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
|July 10, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Epidemiological modeling for policy needs urgent standards. A new checklist reveals current pandemic models lack transparency and cost-benefit analysis, highlighting a need for improved infectious disease modeling practices.

Keywords:
COVID-19SIR modelingcost benefitepidemiologyhealth services researchpolicy

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) models are widely used for pandemic policy but face criticism.
  • A need exists for standardized approaches in epidemiological modeling for policy recommendations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a set of modeling standards to enhance policy decision-making.
  • To introduce a checklist for evaluating policy modeling literature.

Main Methods:

  • Identified and described five key standards: transparency, heterogeneity, calibration/validation, cost-benefit analysis, and model recalibration.
  • Developed a checklist to assess existing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) modeling literature against these standards.

Main Results:

  • Graded 16 articles using the checklist, finding an average adherence of 36.7% to the proposed standards.
  • Observed a lack of cost-benefit analyses and inadequate transparency in most evaluated articles.

Conclusions:

  • Significant improvements are needed in pandemic policy modeling, particularly regarding transparency and comprehensive analysis.
  • The study calls for community-wide consensus on shared standards for infectious disease policy modeling to prepare for future challenges.