Taking globally consistent health impact projections to the next level

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Science
• Public Health

Background:

• Substantial knowledge gaps persist regarding climate change's future health impacts.
• Previous research lacks coordinated, consistent methodologies for directly comparable outputs.
• A coordinated bottom-up initiative addresses these shortcomings by generating new, consistent research evidence.

Purpose of the Study:

• To discuss and exemplify a coordinated, bottom-up initiative for assessing climate change health impacts.
• To present findings from one of the largest model comparisons of projected health impacts due to climate change.
• To highlight the need for greater coordination in climate change and health research.

Main Methods:

• A large-scale model comparison initiative was undertaken.
• Studies focused on a selection of health impacts across various geographical locations.
• The initiative aimed for coordinated and consistent research outputs.

Main Results:

• Climate change impacts on health are complex and multidirectional, with both adverse and beneficial effects observed.
• Adverse impacts, particularly in scenarios with higher greenhouse gas forcing, are dominant.
• Future population risk, disease incidence, morbidity, and mortality are predicted to increase substantially, with significant location- and disease-specific variations.
• Greenhouse gas emission mitigation shows potential to substantially reduce health risks.

Conclusions:

• Coordinated research initiatives are essential for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change health impacts.
• Adverse health impacts of climate change are projected to increase, underscoring the need for mitigation strategies.
• Adaptation's potential positive impact remains a significant uncertainty due to its exclusion from current models.