The "Great Lockdown": Inactive workers and mortality by Covid-19

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Economics

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated unprecedented public health interventions.
• Italy implemented a nationwide economic lockdown on March 22, 2020, closing non-essential businesses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the causal impact of the Italian economic lockdown on COVID-19 mortality.
• To assess the effect of the lockdown on population mobility patterns.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a difference-in-differences approach exploiting variation in the active population across municipalities.
• Compared outcomes in municipalities with high vs. low changes in active population share pre- and post-lockdown.
• Controlled for municipality-specific trends, provincial daily shocks, and unobserved municipal characteristics.

Main Results:

• The intensity of the economic lockdown was associated with a statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 mortality.
• The reduction in mortality was particularly pronounced in age groups 40-64 and older individuals (above 50).
• Estimated that approximately 4793 deaths were avoided between April 5-30 in municipalities with more intense lockdowns.

Conclusions:

• Economic lockdowns can be an effective measure for reducing COVID-19 mortality, particularly in vulnerable populations.
• The findings provide quantitative evidence on the life-saving benefits of stringent public health policies during pandemics.