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Updated: Oct 29, 2025

Errors as a Means of Reducing Impulsive Food Choice

Errors as a Means of Reducing Impulsive Food Choice

Published on: June 5, 2016

Uncertainty drives deviations in normative foraging decision strategies.

Zachary P Kilpatrick^1,2, Jacob D Davidson^3,4,5, Ahmed El Hady⁶

¹Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

|July 13, 2021

Summary

Animals foraging for resources face uncertainty. This study introduces a mathematical model where foragers use Bayesian updating to estimate patch yields, influencing decisions to leave patches and affecting harvest strategies compared to traditional theories.

Keywords:

decision-making evidence accumulation foraging normative theory

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Area of Science:

Behavioral Ecology
Mathematical Biology
Theoretical Ecology

Background:

Animals forage to survive, with patch exploitation being a key behavior.
Existing mathematical models for foraging under uncertainty need improvement for tractability.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a normative theory for patch foraging decisions under uncertainty.
To model how foragers infer resource yields and decide when to leave a patch.

Main Methods:

Developed a mathematical model using Bayesian updating for foragers to estimate resource yields.
Simulated foragers making departure decisions based on certainty and estimated patch yield thresholds.

Main Results:

Foraging uncertainty impacts patch residence times and departure rules.
Uncertainty causes foragers to overharvest low-yield patches and underharvest high-yield patches compared to the marginal value theorem.
Slow depletion (e.g., habitat selection) leads to departures driven by reduced uncertainty.

Conclusions:

The developed theory extends optimal foraging theory by incorporating uncertainty.
The model provides a framework for understanding how uncertainty shapes foraging behavior and resource exploitation.