YMrCA: Improving Y-chromosomal ancestor time estimation for DNA kinship research

The Y-chromosome is a valuable kinship indicator in family history and forensic research. To reconstruct genealogies, the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) between paternal relatives can be estimated through Y-STR analysis. Existing models are the stepwise mutation model (SMM, only one-step Y-STR changes) and the infinite allele model (IAM, new allele per Y-STR change). In this study, these mutation models and all existing tMRCA calculators were validated through a genetic-genealogy database containing 1,120 biologically related genealogical pairs confirmed by 46 Y-STRs with known tMRCA (18,109 generations). Consistent under- and overestimation and broad confidence intervals were observed, leading to dubious tMRCA estimates. This is because they do not include individual mutation rates or multi-step changes and ignore hidden multiple, back, or parallel modifications. To improve tMRCA estimation, we developed a user-friendly calculator, the "YMrCA", including all previously mentioned mutation characteristics. After extensive validation, we observed that the YMrCA calculator demonstrated a promising performance. The YMrCA yields a significantly higher tMRCA success rate (96%; +20%) and a lower tMRCA error (7; -3) compared to the mutation models and all online tMRCA calculators. Therefore, YMrCA offers the next step towards more objective tMRCA estimation for DNA kinship research.