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Updated: Oct 28, 2025

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
The optimal controlling strategy on a dispersing population in a two-patch system: Experimental and theoretical
Bo Zhang1, Lu Zhai2, Jason Bintz3
1Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, United States; Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, United States.
Abstract:
Invasive species, disease vectors, and pathogens are significant threats to biodiversity, ecosystem function and services, and human health. Understanding the optimal management strategy, which maximizes the effectiveness is crucial. Despite an abundance of theoretical work has conducted on projecting the optimal allocation strategy, almost no empirical work has been performed to validate the theory. We first used a consumer-resource model to simulate a series of allocation fractions of controlling treatment to determine the optimal controlling strategy. Further, we conducted rigorous laboratory experiments using spatially diffusing laboratory populations of yeast to verify our mathematical results. We found consistent results that: (1) When population growth is limited by the local resource, the controlling priority should be given to the areas with higher concentration of resource; (2) When population growth is not limited by the resource concentration, the best strategy is to allocate equal amount of controlling efforts among the regions; (3) With restricted budget, it is more efficient to prioritize the controlling effects to the areas with high population abundance, otherwise, it is better to control equally among the regions. The new theory, which was tested by laboratory experiments, will reveal new opportunities for future field interventions, thereby informing subsequent biological decision-making.
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