Atmospheric circulation and mortality by unintentional drowning in Spain: from 1999 to 2018

Drowning deaths are a leading cause of unintentional deaths worldwide. Few studies have analysed the role of meteorology in drowning, and with inconclusive results. The aim of this work is to analyse the temporal and geographical distribution of deaths by accidental drowning and submersion in Spain over 20 years, and to assess the relationship between accidental drowning and main atmospheric circulation patterns.

An ecological study was performed, in which drowning and submersion mortality data from 1999 to 2018, considering demographic variables, were analysed. To study the association with atmospheric circulation we used an ERA5 reanalysis product over the whole European continent and the Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) data set.

The annual average rate of deaths by accidental drownings was 11.86 deaths per million of habitants in Spain. The incidence in males was four times higher than in females, and when comparing age groups, the rate in the eldest group was the highest. Unintentional drowning deaths were not equally distributed around the country; the provinces with the highest registered standardized drowning death rates were touristic waterfront provinces either in Eastern Spain or in one of the archipelagos. There was a significant relationship between accidental drowning and meteorological variables during summer months, and drowning deaths were spatially correlated with sea-level pressure over the Mediterranean basin.

Although the mortality rate registered a statistically significant decreasing tendency over the studied period, our results must be taken into consideration to improve the prevention strategies in the country since most of these deaths are avoidable.