[Establishment and validation of prognostic risk score model for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on immune...

Objective: To find the biomarkers that accurately predict the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: The immune related genes that were significantly related to the overall survival (OS) of patients with ESCC were screened from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database to construct a prognostic risk score model. The prognoses of the high-risk and low-risk groups were compared by Kaplan-Meier method. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Tumor tissue samples of 83 patients with pathological diagnosis of ESCC were collected from Anyang Cancer Hospital for external verification. Cox regression analysis was used to comprehensively evaluate the effects of prognostic risk score and various clinical characteristics on OS of patients with ESCC. Results: Seven immune-related genes that were significantly related to survival prognosis were selected from the TCGA database and included in the prognostic risk score model, which were S100A12, SLC40A1, FABP9, TNFSF10, IGHA2, IL1F10, and STC2. The 1- and 2-year survival rates of the low-risk group (40 cases) were 94.3% and 82.5%, respectively, while those of the high-risk group (40 cases) were 75.9% and 32.9%, respectively.The prognosis of the high-risk group was worse than that of the low-risk group (P<0.001). The 83 external validation samples obtained consistent results by using the prognostic risk score model. The prognostic risk score was positively correlated with the content of CD4(+) T lymphocytes in ESCC (r(s)=0.259, P=0.020), but not correlated with the content of B lymphocytes, CD8(+) T lymphocytes, neutrophils, macrophages or dendritic cells (P>0.05). Conclusions: S100A12, SLC40A1, FABP9, TNFSF10, IGHA2, IL1F10, and STC2 were risk genes significantly associated with OS of patients with ESCC. The prognostic risk score was an independent prognostic factor for the OS of patients with ESCC, and it was correlated with the content of CD4(+) T lymphocytes in ESCC tissue.