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A scoring system for predicting individual treatment effects of statins in type 2 diabetes patients on haemodialysis
Bernd Genser1,2, Christoph Wanner1, Winfried März3,4,5
1Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Würzburg, Germany.
Insights
Statins may harm some hemodialysis patients with diabetes, while benefiting others. A new score predicts individual responses, aiding personalized cardiovascular risk management in this population.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Cardiology
- Pharmacogenomics
Background:
- Patients undergoing hemodialysis have a high risk of cardiovascular disease.
- Statins are beneficial for cardiovascular risk reduction in chronic kidney disease but not in hemodialysis patients.
- Previous analyses identified patient-specific markers for heterogeneous statin effects in hemodialysis patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a predictive score for individual statin treatment effects in hemodialysis patients.
- To identify subgroups of patients who may benefit from or be harmed by statin therapy.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the 4D study (1255 hemodialysis patients with type 2 diabetes randomized to atorvastatin or placebo).
- Developed two scores based on 23 and 17 predictive markers, respectively.
- Stratified patients into groups based on the predictive score to analyze differential treatment effects.
Main Results:
- Score 1 identified patient subgroups with differential statin effects: harm (score <26), neutral effect (26-31), and benefit (score >31).
- The benefit group (score >31) showed a 0.43 hazard ratio for cardiovascular events and reduced all-cause mortality.
- Score 2, using clinically accessible markers, yielded similar but less pronounced stratification.
Conclusions:
- Statin efficacy in hemodialysis patients is predictable using markers related to cholesterol metabolism, atherosclerosis, protein energy wasting, and competing risks.
- The developed score can aid in clinical risk stratification, identifying patients who benefit from statins and those who may experience harm.
- Personalized statin therapy based on this score could optimize cardiovascular risk management in hemodialysis patients.
Aims:
Haemodialysis patients have high cardiovascular disease risk. Although statins reduce this risk in chronic kidney disease, randomised trials in haemodialysis patients show no benefit. Post-hoc analyses of the German Diabetes Dialysis (4D) study identified patient-specific markers associated with heterogeneous treatment effects. We combined these markers to develop a score for predicting individual effects of statins in these patients.
Methods And Results:
We used data from the 4D study, enrolling 1255 haemodialysis patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, randomised to atorvastatin or placebo and followed for a composite cardiovascular endpoint. We calculated two scores: score 1 based on all 23 predictive markers and score 2 based on 17 clinically accessible markers. Groups stratified by score 1 showed differential treatment effects: for score <26 (458 patients; 36%), the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.54 (1.16-2.03), suggesting harm; for 26-31 (331 patients; 26%), it was 1.03 (0.72-1.48), suggesting a neutral effect; and for >31 (466 patients; 38%), it was 0.43 (0.30-0.60), suggesting a benefit. Statins also significantly reduced all-cause mortality in the benefit group. Stratification by score 2 yielded similar results but a smaller group gaining benefit (360 patients).
Conclusion:
Statin effects in haemodialysis patients can be predicted by markers associated with plausible relevant mechanisms including cholesterol metabolism, atherosclerosis, protein energy wasting, or competing risks. In clinical practice, the score could aid in risk stratification, not only to select patients who benefit from statins but also to identify those whom treatment could harm.
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