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A Dynamic Risk Appraisal Model and Its Application in VTS Based on a Cellular Automata Simulation Prediction
Yongfeng Suo1, Zhihong Sun2, Christophe Claramunt3
1Navigation College, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China.
Abstract:
The successful implementation of Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) relies heavily on human decisions. With the increasing development of maritime traffic, there is an urgent need to provide a sound support for dynamic risk appraisals and decision support. This research introduces a cellular automata (CA) simulation-based modelling approach the objective of which is to analyze and evaluate real-time maritime traffic risks in port environments. The first component is the design of a CA model to monitor ships' behavior and maritime fairway traffic. The second component is the refinement of the modelling approach by combining a cloud model with expert knowledge. The third component establishes a risk assessment model based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. A typical scenario was experimentally implemented to validate the model's efficiency and operationality.
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