Modeling the life cycle of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) with management implications

The spotted lanternfly (SLF) is an invasive pest that emerged in the US less than a decade ago. With few natural enemies and an ability to feed on a wide variety of readily available plants the population has grown rapidly. It is causing damage to a wide range of natural and economically important farmed plants and at present there is no known way to stop the growth and spread of the population. However, a number of control measures have been proposed to limit the growth and the effectiveness of some of these have been assessed via empirical studies. Studies to estimate the natural mortality rate of the lanternfly's different life stages and other properties of its life cycle are also available. However, no attempt to integrate this empirical information to estimate population level characteristics such as the population growth rate and the potential effects of proposed control measures can be found in the literature. Here, we introduce a simple population dynamics model parameterized using available information in the literature to obtain estimates of this type. Our model suggests that the annual growth rate of the SLF population in the US is 5.47, that only three out of six proposed control measures considered here have the potential to decrease the population even if we can find and treat each SLF in every stage, and that even with a combined strategy involving the most effective proposed control measures about 35% of all SLF in the relevant stages must be found and treated to turn the current population growth into decline. Suggesting that eradication of the spotted lanternfly over larger geographical areas in the US will be challenging, and we believe that the modeling framework presented here may be useful in providing estimates to inform feasibility assessment of proposed management efforts.