Histogram models based on intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging to predict nodal staging of rectal...

To develop a model based on histogram parameters derived from intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging (IVIM-DWI) for predicting the nodal staging of rectal cancer (RC).

A total of 95 RC patients who underwent direct surgical resection were enrolled in this prospective study. The nodal staging on conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was evaluated according to the short axis diameter and morphological characteristics. Histogram parameters were extracted from apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), true diffusion coefficient (D), pseudo-diffusion coefficient (D*), and perfusion fraction (f) maps. Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to establish models for predicting nodal staging among all patients and those underestimated on conventional MRI.

The combined model based on multiple maps demonstrated superior diagnostic performance to single map models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 0.959, 94.3%, 88.3%, and 90.5%, respectively. The AUC of the combined model was significantly higher than that of the conventional nodal staging (P < 0.001). Additionally, 85.0% of the underestimated patients had suspicious lymph nodes with 5-8 mm short-axis diameter. The histogram model for these subgroups of patients showed good diagnostic efficacy with an AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 0.890, 100%, 75%, and 80.5%.

The histogram model based on IVIM-DWI could improve the diagnostic performance of nodal staging of RC. In addition, histogram parameters of IVIM-DWI may help to reduce the uncertainty of nodal staging in underestimated patients on conventional MRI.