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Dynamic nomogram for persistent organ failure in acute biliary pancreatitis: Development and validation in a
1Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China.
Summary
A new dynamic nomogram can predict persistent organ failure (POF) in acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) patients. This tool aids early identification of high-risk individuals, improving patient outcomes and mortality risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Medical research
- Clinical diagnostics
- Pancreatology
Background:
- Persistent organ failure (POF) is a significant risk factor for mortality in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP).
- Current clinical practice lacks an effective early risk assessment tool for POF in ABP patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a dynamic nomogram for predicting the risk of POF in patients with ABP.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 792 ABP patients (595 development, 197 validation).
- Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression for predictor screening.
- Logistic regression model development and validation using bootstrap and external datasets.
Main Results:
- Neutrophils, hematocrit, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen identified as POF predictors.
- Nomogram demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (AUROC 0.875 development, 0.854 validation).
- Good calibration and excellent clinical utility confirmed by decision curve analysis.
Conclusions:
- The developed dynamic nomogram enables early identification and screening of ABP patients at high risk for POF.
- This tool can significantly aid clinical decision-making and patient management.
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