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Tracking Pandemic Severity Using Data on the Age Structure of Mortality: Lessons From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in

Siddharth Chandra1, Julia Christensen1

  • 1Siddharth Chandra is with the Asian Studies Center and James Madison College at Michigan State University, East Lansing, with a courtesy appointment in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. Julia Christensen is with James Madison College at Michigan State University, East Lansing.

American Journal of Public Health
|July 27, 2021
PubMed

Insights

Distortions in death age distribution during the 1918 influenza pandemic correlated with pandemic severity. This method may help track future pandemics like COVID-19 using age-at-death data.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Demography

Background:

  • The 1918 influenza pandemic caused significant mortality, with notable age distribution shifts.
  • Understanding pandemic severity tracking is crucial for public health preparedness.

Observation:

  • Excess deaths in Michigan from 1918-1920 were calculated using all-cause mortality data.
  • The Kuiper goodness-of-fit test measured deviations in monthly age-at-death distributions compared to a 1912-1917 baseline.

Findings:

  • A strong positive correlation (r=0.83, P<.001) was found between monthly age distribution distortions and excess deaths.
  • These findings indicate that changes in the age structure of mortality mirrored pandemic intensity.

Implications:

  • Age distribution of deaths can serve as a proxy for tracking pandemic severity.
  • This approach offers a potential method for monitoring pandemics, including COVID-19, especially when complete data is lacking.

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