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Evolution: No extinction? No way!

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  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3AN, UK.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Molecular phylogenies often suggest no extinction, contradicting the fossil record. A new study reveals these zero extinction estimates are incorrect due to sampling only living species in phylogenetic analyses.

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Paleontology
  • Molecular Phylogenetics

Background:

  • The fossil record indicates frequent extinction events throughout Earth's history.
  • Molecular phylogenetics, using DNA, often infers a lack of extinction when analyzing extant species.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the discrepancy between fossil and molecular data regarding extinction rates.
  • To identify the causes of zero extinction estimates in molecular phylogenetic analyses.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of time-calibrated molecular phylogenies.
  • Comparison of phylogenetic data with fossil evidence.
  • Simulation studies to assess the impact of sampling limitations.

Main Results:

  • Estimates of zero extinction derived from phylogenies of living species are fundamentally flawed.
  • The limitation arises from analyzing phylogenies that exclusively sample extant species, ignoring extinct lineages.
  • This sampling bias leads to an underestimation or complete omission of extinction events.

Conclusions:

  • Molecular phylogenetic analyses must account for extinct species to accurately estimate extinction rates.
  • Current methods relying solely on extant species provide misleading conclusions about evolutionary history and biodiversity.
  • Revising phylogenetic methodologies is crucial for reconciling molecular and fossil data on extinction.