Improved method for calibration of exchange flows for a physical transport box model of Tampa Bay, FL USA

We report the results for both sequential and simultaneous calibration of exchange flows between segments of a 10-box, 1-dimensional, well mixed, bifurcated tidal mixing model for Tampa Bay. Calibrations were conducted for three model options having different mathematical expressions for evaporative loss. In approaching this project we asked three questions: does simultaneous calibration or sequential calibration yield better box model performance; which evaporation option best predicts observed salinities; and how well does model performance compare to more complex hydrodynamic models. Sequential calibration followed the classical salt balance and steady state approach. The nonlinear parameter estimator (PEST) was used for simultaneous calibration. The sequential approach proved useful in evaluating the three evaporation options. However, simultaneous calibration proved superior in predicting observed salinities but was ineffective in discerning differences between evaporation options. The simultaneously calibrated model produced residence times that fell within the range of more complex hydrodynamic models of Tampa Bay.