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Estimating the quarantine failure rate for COVID-19
Meili Li1, Qianqian Yuan1, Pian Chen1
1College of Science, Donghua University, Shanghai, 201620, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|July 28, 2021
Summary
Quarantine effectiveness against COVID-19 depends on incubation periods. Longer quarantine periods, like 21 days, significantly reduce transmission risks compared to shorter 10-day or 14-day policies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Control
Background:
- Quarantine is vital for controlling imported COVID-19 cases and community spread.
- A prolonged incubation period for COVID-19 can lead to symptom onset post-quarantine, risking further transmission.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of the 14-day quarantine policy.
- To develop a model for estimating quarantine failure rates based on incubation periods and epidemic curves.
Main Methods:
- Developed a formula to calculate quarantine failure rate.
- Utilized incubation period distribution and epidemic curve data.
- Applied the formula to data from the United States, Canada, and Hubei Province, China.
Main Results:
- Quarantine failure rate correlates positively with the epidemic's exponential growth rate.
- Pre-Wuhan lockdown, Hubei Province's failure rate was 4.1%.
- US failure rate estimated at 8.3%-11.5% with a 10-day quarantine; Canada's at 2.5%-3.9%.
- Flattening or decreasing epidemic curves lowered failure rates below 2.8%.
Conclusions:
- A 14-day quarantine may be insufficient, especially during rapid transmission.
- Extending quarantine to 21 days could drastically reduce failure rates to 0.3%-0.5%.
- Quarantine duration should be adjusted based on epidemic dynamics and incubation period data.
