Challenges of Estimating Accurate Prevalence of Arm Weakness Early After Stroke

Background. Recent studies have reported lower statistics of upper limb (UL) weakness (48-57%) compared to widely cited values collected over 2 decades ago (70-80%). Objective. To explore potential factors contributing to the accuracy of prevalence values of UL weakness using a case study from a single regional centre. Methods. All patients admitted to the acute stroke unit with suspected diagnosis of stroke were screened from February 2016 to August 2017. Upper limb weakness was captured (a) prospectively using the Shoulder Abduction and Finger Extension (SAFE) score performed by unit physical therapists within 7 days post-stroke and (b) retrospectively via chart review using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) arm score at admission and 24 hours post-admission. Results. A total of 656 patients were admitted with a first-ever stroke, and 621 (95%) individuals were administered the SAFE score. A total of 40% of individuals had UL weakness using the SAFE score (SAFE ≤8) at a mean time of 1.9 (SD 1.5) days post-stroke. In the same sample, 57% and 49% had UL weakness using the admission and 24-hour post-admission NIHSS arm score, respectively. Conclusions. The accuracy of population-level UL weakness prevalence values can be affected by weakness measure and score cut-off, time post-stroke weakness is captured, sample characteristics and use of single or multiple sites. Researchers using prevalence values for clinical trial planning should consider these attributes when using prevalence data for estimating recruitment rates and resource needs.