Prediction of Multiple sclerosis disease using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study

Hamedan Province is one of Iran's high-risk regions for Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Early diagnosis of MS based on an accurate system can control the disease. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of four machine learning techniques with traditional methods for predicting MS patients.

The study used information regarding 200 patients through a case-control study conducted in Hamadan, Western Iran, from 2013 to 2015. The performance of six classifiers was used to compare their performance in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) and total accuracy.

Random Forest (RF) model illustrated better performance among other models in both scenarios. It had greater specificity (0.67), PPV (0.68) and total accuracy (0.68). The most influential diagnostic factors for MS were age, birth season and gender.

Our findings showed that despite all the six methods performed almost similarly, the RF model performed slightly better in terms of different criteria in prediction accuracy. Accordingly, this approach is an effective classifier for predicting MS in the early stage and control the disease.