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Related Concept Videos

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Accuracy and Errors in Hypothesis Testing01:13

Accuracy and Errors in Hypothesis Testing

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Hypothesis testing is a fundamental statistical tool that begins with the assumption that the null hypothesis H0 is true. During this process, two types of errors can occur: Type I and Type II. A Type I error refers to the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis, while a Type II error involves the failure to reject a false null hypothesis.
In hypothesis testing, the probability of making a Type I error, denoted as α, is commonly set at 0.05. This significance level indicates a 5%...
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Detection of Gross Error: The Q Test01:00

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When one or more data points appear far from the rest of the data, there is a need to determine whether they are outliers and whether they should be eliminated from the data set to ensure an accurate representation of the measured value. In many cases, outliers arise from gross errors (or human errors) and do not accurately reflect the underlying phenomenon. In some cases, however, these apparent outliers reflect true phenomenological differences. In these cases, we can use statistical methods...
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Reason and Intuition01:37

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The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
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Accuracy and Precision01:52

Accuracy and Precision

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Scientists typically make repeated measurements of a quantity to ensure the quality of their findings and to evaluate both the precision and the accuracy of their results. Measurements are said to be precise if they yield very similar results when repeated in the same manner. A measurement is considered accurate if it yields a result that is very close to the true or the accepted value. Precise values agree with each other; accurate values agree with a true value.  Highly accurate...
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The Availability Heuristic01:08

The Availability Heuristic

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A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
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Updated: Oct 26, 2025

Dynamic Monitoring of Seroconversion using a Multianalyte Immunobead Assay for Covid-19
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When intuition falters: repeated testing accuracy during an epidemic.

James A Hay1, Joel Hellewell2, Xueting Qiu3

  • 1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. jhay@hsph.harvard.edu.

European Journal of Epidemiology
|July 29, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Repeated rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 can be effective, but simple calculations may mislead. A new model shows dynamic factors like new infections and isolation impact test accuracy over time.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Diagnostic Test Evaluation

Background:

  • Rapid antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 are widely used but their effectiveness in repeated testing strategies is debated.
Keywords:
COVID-19Lateral flow testMass testingRapid antigen testSARS-CoV-2Surveillance testing

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  • Concerns exist regarding the sensitivity and specificity of lateral flow tests for detecting asymptomatic infections and minimizing false positives.