Meteorological drivers and ENSO influence on phytoplankton biomass dynamics in a shallow subtropical lake

Meteorological features influence the dynamics of aquatic ecosystems and consequently their biotas. This study aimed to identify the meteorological drivers of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a), sampled seasonally over a period of 12 years (2001-2013) in Lake Mangueira, a large shallow subtropical lake in southern Brazil. The lake is 90 km long and 3-10 km wide with a mean depth of 3 m and is oligo-mesotrophic and highly affected by wind action. In general, non-parametric multiplicative regression analysis identified wind direction, radiation, and the Oceanic Niño Index as the main drivers of variation in chlorophyll a. Notably, ENSO periods caused changes in physical, chemical, and meteorological parameters, including conductivity, total suspended solids, total and dissolved nitrogen, alkalinity, soluble reactive silica, wind speed, and precipitation. Phytoplankton biomass showed significant differences between ENSO periods and the periods without events, occurring in the highest values during La Niña years. This study showed that meteorological variables can significantly influence productivity patterns, indicating the importance of including them in limnological studies.