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A Novel Afrocentric Stroke Risk Assessment Score: Models from the Siren Study
Onoja Akpa1, Fred S Sarfo2, Mayowa Owolabi3
1Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Nigeria; Cardiology Research Unit, Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
Summary
A new stroke risk score was developed for indigenous Africans, identifying 15 vascular factors. This Afrocentric model accurately quantifies stroke risk, aiding in prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Stroke risk assessment tools often lack geographic and racial specificity.
- No existing tools estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for predicting stroke occurrence in West Africans.
- Establish a validated tool for stroke risk assessment in a specific demographic.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 3533 West African stroke cases and matched controls (SIREN study).
- Developed conditional logistic regression models using 17 putative risk factors.
- Created an additive risk scoring system (0-100%) and validated using ROC curves.
Main Results:
- Identified 15 traditional vascular risk factors for stroke occurrence.
- Achieved a predictive accuracy of 76% for overall stroke risk.
- Demonstrated high predictive accuracy for ischemic (78%) and hemorrhagic (79%) strokes.
Conclusions:
- The developed SIREN models accurately quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans.
- Further prospective studies are recommended to validate the stroke risk instrument for prevention efforts.
