Economic instability and child maltreatment risk: Evidence from state administrative data

The effects of economic instability and the role of economic conditions preceding child protective services (CPS) involvement have not been fully considered in the child welfare literature.

This paper investigates the link between earnings instability and CPS involvement. Specifically, it examines whether adequate access to safety net programs mitigates the likelihood of child welfare involvement when families encounter negative earnings shocks.

The study used quarterly administrative data from a sample of at-risk families for CPS involvement in Wisconsin. Event history analysis was employed to estimate the relationship between earnings instability and subsequent child maltreatment investigations.

Experiencing a negative earnings shock of 30% or more increases the likelihood of CPS involvement by approximately 18%. The effect diminishes and becomes nonsignificant when an earnings decline is compensated by benefit receipt. Each additional earnings drop is associated with a 15% greater likelihood of CPS involvement. Each consecutive quarter with stable income is associated with 5% lower probability of a CPS report. The results are more pronounced for abuse than neglect and are marginally significant for neglect reports.

Unfavorable economic instability is linked to greater CPS-involvement risk, particularly for child abuse. Moreover, accessing sufficient social benefits as supplemental income when negative earnings shocks occur serves to effectively buffer against the risk of child maltreatment, particularly among families with young children (ages 0-4).