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Deep learning model for forecasting COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt.

Mohamed Marzouk1, Nehal Elshaboury2, Amr Abdel-Latif3

  • 1Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Egypt.

Process Safety and Environmental Protection : Transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, Part B
|August 2, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Artificial intelligence models, including LSTM, accurately predicted COVID-19 spread in Egypt. The LSTM model showed the best performance in forecasting infections, aiding public health policy development.

Keywords:
COVID-19Deep learningEgyptEpidemic modelLong short-term memory network

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Public Health

Background:

  • COVID-19 declared a global pandemic in early 2020.
  • Understanding epidemiological characteristics is vital for containment.
  • Egypt faced significant COVID-19 outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict COVID-19 prevalence in Egypt using AI models.
  • To evaluate the performance of LSTM, CNN, and MLP neural networks.
  • To forecast future infection trends for policy-making.

Main Methods:

  • Application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network.
  • Utilized Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP).
  • Models trained and validated on data from February 2020 to August 2020.

Main Results:

  • LSTM demonstrated superior performance in forecasting cumulative infections.
  • The model accurately predicted infections one week and one month ahead.
  • Forecasts for July 2021 estimated 285,939 infections, 234,747 recoveries, and 17,251 deaths.

Conclusions:

  • AI, particularly LSTM, is effective for predicting COVID-19 outbreaks.
  • The study provides valuable data for Egyptian public health decision-makers.
  • Forecasting capabilities can inform and monitor disease control strategies.