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The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
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Effects of Choice Restriction on Accuracy and User Experience in an Internet-Based Geopolitical Forecasting Task.

Colin L Widmer1, Amy Summerville1, Ion Juvina2

  • 1Kairos Research, Dayton, OH, United States.

Frontiers in Psychology
|August 2, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Intelligent load distribution in forecasting tournaments can help manage workload without harming accuracy. Studies show limiting forecaster choice in geopolitical forecasting did not negatively impact performance or motivation.

Keywords:
choice restrictiongeopolitical forecastingintelligent load distributionwisdom of crowdsworkload

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Area of Science:

  • Social Sciences
  • Computational Social Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Large-scale geopolitical forecasting tournaments are valuable for testing new forecasting tools.
  • Distributing forecasting tasks (load) among participants is a key challenge.
  • Intelligent load distribution (triage) aims to optimize task allocation and crowd aggregation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of limiting forecaster choice on accuracy and motivation.
  • To determine if triage strategies in forecasting tournaments affect user experience.
  • To assess the trade-offs between choice restriction and forecasting effectiveness.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted with novice online forecasters.
  • Study 1 compared accuracy and experience between perceived choice and restricted choice.
  • Study 2 manipulated the number of available question choices for forecasters.

Main Results:

  • No significant adverse effects on forecasting accuracy were found when choice was limited.
  • Subjective experience, including motivation, remained unaffected by restricted choice.
  • Forecasting performance was not degraded by limiting the number of available questions.

Conclusions:

  • Choice-limiting triage strategies can be implemented in large-scale forecasting tournaments.
  • These strategies do not appear to sacrifice individual accuracy or motivation.
  • Optimized load distribution is feasible without compromising participant engagement or results.