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National Health Systems and COVID-19 Death Toll Doubling Time
Miguel Alfaro1, Diego Muñoz-Godoy2, Manuel Vargas1
1Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Frontiers in Public Health
|August 2, 2021
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed all national health systems (NHSs), regardless of their structure. Analysis of 56 countries showed similar death rate doubling times across the four WHO-recognized NHS models.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Health Services Research
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic significantly stressed national health systems (NHSs) globally.
- Previous research examined various factors like quarantine, mental health, and mortality.
- This study specifically analyzes the impact on four World Health Organization (WHO) recognized NHS models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the response of different national health system (NHS) models to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To analyze the time required for COVID-19 related deaths to double within distinct NHS structures.
- To assess if NHS management structures influenced pandemic saturation levels.
Main Methods:
- Focused on four WHO-recognized NHS models: Beveridge, Bismarck, National Health Insurance (NHI), and Out-of-Pocket.
- Analyzed data from 56 countries, representing 70% of the global population.
- Compared the median time for COVID-19 deaths to double using Mood's median test.
Main Results:
- High variability in temporal trends was observed within each NHS group.
- No NHS model maintained stable interquartile ranges (IQRs) across the three analyzed periods.
- Median death doubling times were similar across all four NHS models, indicating comparable saturation points.
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 pandemic saturates health systems irrespective of their organizational or management structures.
- The time for the death rate to double was found to be similar across the Beveridge, Bismarck, NHI, and Out-of-Pocket NHS models.
- Pandemic impact on health systems is a universal challenge, transcending specific national health system designs.
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