The Great East Japan Earthquake and suicide: The long-term consequences and underlying mechanisms

How and why do major natural disasters affect suicide? This study revisits this question by focusing on the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in March 2011 as a historically important natural disaster. Using an event-study analysis, we assessed how the GEJE changed the suicide rates in the regions affected by it and whether its effect persisted, attenuated, or escalated over time. In addition, we explored the political and social channels underlying the relationship between the GEJE and suicide. Using prefecture-level data, our analysis reveals that suicide by men aged 40-64 years and 65 years and over showed a large decline in the GEJE-affected prefectures in the years following the earthquake, and this decline attenuated over time. Furthermore, following the GEJE, government spending increased while divorce rates decreased in the affected prefectures, both of which were correlated with male suicide rates. These findings indicate that suicide after major natural disasters is preventable when political and social reactions to disasters provide a safety net, especially for men.