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Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions
Haijun Song1, David B Kemp2, Li Tian2
1State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China. haijunsong@cug.edu.cn.
Nature Communications
|August 5, 2021
Summary
Climate change significantly impacts marine biodiversity. Past extinctions correlate with temperature shifts, suggesting current warming could trigger mass extinction events.
Area of Science:
- Paleontology
- Climate Science
- Marine Biology
Background:
- Climate change is a known driver of biodiversity loss.
- The precise quantitative link between temperature fluctuations and extinction rates remains incompletely understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between temperature change (magnitude and rate) and marine animal extinction rates over the past 450 million years.
- To identify critical climate change thresholds associated with past mass extinction events.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of marine fossil extinction rates.
- Correlation analysis with geological records of temperature change (magnitude and rate) over 450 million years.
- Statistical examination excluding major Phanerozoic mass extinctions.
Main Results:
- Both the rate and magnitude of temperature change show a significant positive correlation with marine animal extinction rates.
- Major Phanerozoic mass extinctions are associated with climate change thresholds exceeding 5.2°C in magnitude or 10°C/Myr in rate.
- This correlation persists even when the five largest mass extinctions are excluded from the analysis.
Conclusions:
- Temperature change is a significant predictor of marine extinction events.
- Current rates of climate change, if reaching a 5.2°C increase, could precipitate mass extinctions comparable to major historical events.
- Anthropogenic climate change poses a substantial risk to marine biodiversity, independent of other human impacts.
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