The Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce: Projections for 2030.

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Workforce Analysis
• Emergency Medicine
• Health Services Research

Background:

• The supply and demand dynamics of emergency care providers are crucial for ensuring timely and effective patient treatment.
• Accurate forecasting of the emergency physician workforce is essential for strategic planning and resource allocation within the healthcare system.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the supply of emergency care providers, including physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants, for the year 2030.
• To forecast the demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians by 2030.
• To analyze the potential imbalance between supply and demand in the emergency medicine workforce.

Main Methods:

• Utilized existing data sources and trend analysis to forecast workforce supply and demand.
• Incorporated assumptions regarding graduate medical education growth, physician attrition rates, and the role of advanced practice providers.
• Conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of varying baseline inputs on the final forecast.

Main Results:

• The most likely scenario predicts a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030.
• This surplus is attributed to a projected 2% annual growth in graduate medical education, a 3% annual attrition rate for emergency physicians, and an 11% increase in emergency department visits.
• An estimated 20% of emergency department encounters may be managed by nurse practitioners or physician assistants.

Conclusions:

• The specialty of emergency medicine is likely to experience an oversupply of physicians by 2030.
• Factors contributing to this projected oversupply include increasing physician supply and evolving demand patterns.
• A coordinated and collective approach is imperative for the emergency medicine specialty to achieve a balanced workforce.