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Use of Principal Components for Scaling Up Topographic Models to Map Soil Redistribution and Soil Organic Carbon
Published on: October 16, 2018
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Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models.
Linjing Qiu1, Mengzhen Yu1, Yiping Wu1
1Department of Earth and Environmental Science, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710049, China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|August 6, 2021
Summary
This study evaluates 16 Earth system models (ESMs) for simulating soil carbon (SC) in China. The IPSL model showed the best performance, projecting increasing SC trends under future climate scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Modeling
- Soil Carbon Dynamics
Background:
- Soil carbon (SC) is crucial for the carbon cycle and climate change.
- Accurate regional-scale assessment of SC dynamics is challenging.
- Earth System Models (ESMs) are vital for understanding carbon cycle-climate feedbacks but exhibit performance uncertainties.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the skill performance of 16 ESMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating SC density in China.
- To identify reliable ESMs for predicting SC dynamics under human activity and climate change.
- To assess future SC density trends under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Compared SC density simulations from 16 CMIP5 ESMs against International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS) reference data.
- Utilized model performance statistics to evaluate SC simulation accuracy.
- Analyzed multimodel ensemble averages from IPSL family ESMs for future SC trends under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
Main Results:
- Most ESMs (11/16) underestimated SC in China, with significant discrepancies in northern high latitudes and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
- The Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Coupled Model demonstrated superior spatial pattern correlation and skill for SC prediction compared to other CMIP5 ESMs.
- Multimodel ensemble averages projected increasing SC density trends under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with slower increases and a potential decrease under RCP8.5 later in the century.
Conclusions:
- The IPSL ESM is a reliable tool for SC prediction in China.
- ESM performance varies, highlighting the need for improved SC parameterization in models.
- Future SC density trends are projected to increase, but the magnitude and trajectory depend on the emissions scenario.
