Predictors of outcome after CABG in the South-Asian community: a propensity matched analysis

Ethnicity is not incorporated into standardized pre-operative risk-stratification tools for cardiac surgery. This study compared short-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in South Asian and non-Asian patients.

Consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery via sternotomy between the years 2011 and 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Initially, 1957 patients were identified (799 South-Asian, 40.8%). The patient groups were then propensity matched according to 10 relevant pre-operative covariates (age, body mass index, pulmonary disease, renal failure, smoking, diabetes, ventricular function, renal failure): 675 non-Asian patients were matched against 675 Asian patients.

Operative mortality was 1.77% and similar between the two groups (p = 0.447). Multivariate regression analysis found predictors of operative mortality to be pre-operative serum creatinine, age, left ventricular (LV) impairment, and extent of coronary disease. The effect of creatinine on mortality was selective for South-Asian patients (p = 0.015). LV impairment was a predictor of mortality in non-Asian patients, however this effect did not exist in South-Asian patients. Predictors of short-term complications (composite of death, stroke, reoperation, hemofiltration, and pneumonia) were age and creatinine (coefficient 0.002, 95% CI 0.0004-0.004, p = 0.019) in the overall cohort. Subgroup analysis found age to remain a selective negative predictor of complications in South-Asian patients. Cox regression analysis found creatinine, age, and LVEF to influence 10-year survival, whilst ethnicity was not a predictor.

This study highlights the cumulative risk associated with ethnicity and renal disease in predicting short-term outcomes following CABG. This warrants further investigations in larger populations, thus guiding pre-operative risk-stratification.