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Temporal variations in COVID-19: an epidemiological discussion with a practical application
Mahnaz Derakhshan1,2, Hamid Reza Ansarian1,3,4, Mory Ghomshei1,5
1Conovita Technologies Inc., Winnipeg, Canada.
The Journal of International Medical Research
|August 9, 2021
Summary
Weekly cycles in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and mortality were observed globally. These synchronized 7-day variations can inform public health strategies for controlling the pandemic.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Understanding temporal patterns in infectious diseases is crucial for effective control.
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exhibits complex temporal variations influencing its spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To characterize temporal variations in COVID-19 infection and mortality.
- To explore the utility of these variations as a tool for disease monitoring and control.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of COVID-19 case and mortality time series using Fourier transforms and statistical methods.
- Investigation of cyclicity and synchronicity in epidemiological data.
- Review of potential causes for short-term variations.
Main Results:
- Identified both short-term and long-term variations in COVID-19 time series.
- Observed a synchronized 7-day cycle in cases across multiple countries.
- Attributed the weekly cycle to social, diagnostic, reporting, and virus-host-community dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Synchronized weekly cycles in COVID-19 can be leveraged for temporal social distancing.
- Integrating temporal distancing with spatial distancing can enhance infection control.
- Spatiotemporal distancing strategies are recommended, considering disease activity intervals.
Keywords:
COVID-19 epidemiologyCOVID-19 weekly cycleCoronavirus disease 2019Fourier transformepidemic disease temporal variationtime-series analysisMore Related Videos
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