[What genetic risk should suggest prenatal diagnosis for cystic fibrosis?]

Prenatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis is today possible by chemical study of amniotic fluid during the 18th week of pregnancy. We have, among 90 families seen for genetic counseling between 1972 and 1985, estimated the risk of recurrence; it was of 0.25 in 55 cases; between 0.05 and 0.16 in 30 cases, greater than 0.01 in 16 cases. Before suggesting a prenatal diagnosis, it is necessary to take as basis the risk of abortion and the reliability of the method. The first risk is well known, less 0.005, in these young women; reliability can be estimated: almost 0.01 of false wrong negative, and this number is probably overvalued if all technical conditions are perfect. In front of these risks, it seems possible to propose a prenatal diagnosis from a risk of 0.01, the families being informed of all risks. We think so to hearten some families and to make possible for them to live quietly these pregnancies, probably non undertaken without our help.