Related Experiment Video
Updated: Oct 25, 2025

Trajectory Data Analyses for Pedestrian Space-time Activity Study
Published on: February 25, 2013
Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease
John R Giles1, Derek A T Cummings2, Bryan T Grenfell3
1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Abstract:
Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Causality in Epidemiology
Principles of Disease Surveillance
Manipulation and Analysis
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
Infection
The chain begins with pathogens: bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions, or parasites such as protozoa helminths. These can be present on the skin as transient or resident flora, or they can be acquired from the environment. Identifying and treating the type of infection and...

