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Swedish rape offenders - a latent class analysis.

Ardavan Khoshnood¹, Henrik Ohlsson¹, Jan Sundquist¹

¹Department of Clinical Sciences, Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.

Forensic Sciences Research

|August 11, 2021

Summary

Sweden sees rising sexual crimes. A study found most convicted rape offenders are immigrants, with two distinct offender profiles: low and high offending classes. Further research into contextual factors is needed.

Keywords:

Forensic sciences Sweden crime crime prevention latent class analysis offender characteristics rape sex crimes

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Area of Science:

Criminology
Public Health
Sociology

Background:

Sweden has experienced a notable increase in sexual offenses, including rape.
Understanding the characteristics of individuals convicted of rape is crucial for effective prevention strategies.
This study focuses on rape and related offenses against adult women in Sweden.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the characteristics of individuals convicted of rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape, or attempted aggravated rape (collectively termed rape+) in Sweden.
To identify distinct offender classes using Latent Class Analysis (LCA).
To examine the prevalence of substance use disorders, prior criminality, and psychiatric disorders among convicted offenders.

Main Methods:

Utilized data from the Swedish Crime Register for offenders aged 15-60 convicted of rape+ between 2000 and 2015.
Retrieved information on substance use disorders, previous criminality, and psychiatric disorders from Swedish population-based registers.
Applied Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to categorize offenders into distinct classes.

Main Results:

A total of 3,039 offenders were analyzed.
A majority of convicted offenders were immigrants (59.2%), with a significant portion born outside Sweden (47.7%).
LCA identified two classes: a Low Offending Class (LOC) with fewer prior issues and a High Offending Class (HOC) with higher rates of prior criminality and disorders.

Conclusions:

The study identified two distinct profiles of rape+ offenders: those with low offending histories and those with high offending histories.
The significant proportion of immigrant offenders and the identified offender classes warrant further in-depth contextual research.
Findings suggest potential differences in policing and intervention needs for the LOC and HOC groups.