Identification and Predictors for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Equivalents among Adults With Diabetes Mellitus

We examined diabetes mellitus (DM) as a cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equivalent based on diabetes severity and other CVD risk factors.

We pooled 4 US cohorts (ARIC, JHS, MESA, FHS-Offspring) and classified subjects by baseline DM/CVD. CVD risks between DM+/CVD- vs. DM-/CVD+ were examined by diabetes severity and in subgroups of other CVD risk factors. We developed an algorithm to identify subjects with CVD risk equivalent diabetes by comparing the relative CVD risk of being DM+/CVD- vs. DM-/CVD+.

The pooled cohort included 27,730 subjects (mean age of 58.5 years, 44.6% male). CVD rates per 1000 person-years were 16.5, 33.4, 43.2 and 71.4 among those with DM-/CVD-, DM+/CVD-, DM-/CVD+ and DM+/CVD+, respectively. Compared with those with DM-/CVD+, CVD risks were similar or higher for those with HbA1c ≥ 7%, diabetes duration ≥10 years, or diabetes medication use while those with less severe diabetes had lower risks. Hazard ratios (95%CI) for DM+/CVD- vs. DM-/CVD+ were 0.96(0.86-1.07), 0.97(0.88-1.07), 0.96(0.82-1.13), 1.18(0.98-1.41), 0.93(0.85-1.02) and 1.00(0.89-1.13) among women, white race, age <55 years, triglycerides ≥2.26 mmol/L, hs-CRP ≥ 2 mg/L and eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73m², respectively. In DM+/CVD- group, 19.1% had CVD risk equivalent diabetes with a lower risk score but a higher observed CVD risk.

Diabetes is a CVD risk equivalent in one-fifth of CVD-free adults living with diabetes. High HbA1c, long diabetes duration, and diabetes medication use were predictors of CVD risk equivalence. Diabetes is a CVD risk equivalent for women, white people, those of younger age, with higher triglycerides or CRP, or reduced kidney function.