Improving the prediction of persistent and recurrent differentiated thyroid cancer using the American Thyroid
Georgios K Markantes1, Meropi Karakioulaki2, Stavroula Papanikolopoulou2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, University of Patras Medical School, Patras, Greece.
Purpose:
The 2015 American Thyroid Association risk stratification system (ATA RSS) is used in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) to assess their risk of persistent/recurrent disease. Our aims were to validate the 2015 ATA RSS in a registry of DTC patients and to examine whether the addition of factors not included in it, such as pre-radioactive iodine therapy stimulated thyroglobulin (pre-RAI sTg), gender, and age could increase its predictive ability.
Methods:
We studied 403 patients with DTC, treated at a tertiary center from 1990 to 2018 and subjected to total thyroidectomy. All patients had received RAI therapy, except those with low-risk papillary microcarcinoma.
Results:
Of our patients, 81.9% were women and 91.1% had papillary thyroid carcinoma. After a median follow-up of 5.0 years, 53 cases of persistent and 21 cases of recurrent disease were recorded. The proportion of variance explained (PVE) regarding the outcome (presence or absence of recurrent/persistent disease) using the 2015 ATA RSS alone was 18.3% (persistence) and 16.9% (recurrence), increasing to 74.4% and 52.0%, respectively, when pre-RAI sTg was added to the logistic regression model. Gender and age were not associated with the disease outcome. In ROC analysis, pre-RAI sTg had a high predictive value for persistent (AUC 0.983, 95% CI 0.962-1.000) and recurrent disease (AUC 0.856, 95% CI 0.715-0.997). The optimal cut-offs and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for pre-RAI sTg were the following: for persistence 12.75 ng/ml, 100%, 90.5%, 64%, and 100%, and for recurrence 8.05 ng/ml, 77.8%, 85.5%, 36.8%, and 97%.
Conclusions:
The 2015 ATA RSS displayed moderate performance in predicting recurrent/persistent disease in patients with DTC, which improved with the inclusion of pre-RAI sTg values; pre-RAI sTg was an independent predictor of the disease outcome, with high negative prognostic value.
