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Updated: Oct 24, 2025

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment
Published on: October 28, 2022
Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical
Thomas J Aubry1,2, John Staunton-Sykes3, Lauren R Marshall3
1Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. ta460@cam.ac.uk.
Abstract:
Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions.
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